Super Tuesday: Ready for a Trump-Hillary smackdown?

Tuesday's results didn't do anything to alter the trajectory of either the Republican or Democratic presidential races. Trump and Hillary each won seven of the 11 states available.

On the Democratic side, Bernie clearly has a problem with minority voters. He's winning or competitive in overwhelmingly white states, taking Vermont, Oklahoma, Minnesota and Colorado on Tuesday. But Clinton has swept states with large minority populations, and on top of that also pulled out a narrow win in Massachusetts. Bernie can win quite a few states going forward, especially in the West, but unless he can improve his standing with minority voters, he has virtually no hope of winning the nomination. CNN puts Hillary's chance of winning at 95 percent, and I'd say that's conservative.

On the Republican side, Trump is looking good, too, though there may still be a narrow window for him to be defeated. Ted Cruz, who won three states Tuesday (TX, OK and Alaska), not surprisingly, called on all other candidates to withdraw. Problem is Rubio (win in Minnesota) and Kasich, (second in VT and MA) did just well enough that they may not want to. On top of that, many in the GOP hate Cruz even worse than Trump, so there's no guarantee Cruz would get much help from other candidates' demise. Look for GOP pressure to ramp up on Kasich, in particular, to pull out of the race. It has been clear for some time that in a multicandidate field, Trump is going to win. We don't know if he can win a one-on-one race, but there's no real reason to think he can't. CNN puts Trump's chances of winning the GOP nod at 80 percent, and I'd say that sounds about right.

The next big date is two weeks from now, March 15. Both the Clinton and Trump campaigns are looking to put their nominations away by then. It's possible, but we'll see, especially of interest is if the GOP has enough misgivings about and ammunition against Trump to change the equation.


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  • Watched the debate last night. It's really weird, but I've never seen a party attempt to destroy its probable nominee like the way Romney and the tag team of Rubio and Cruz are going after Trump. It's almost like the GOP establishment has decided that if Trump is the nominee, they'd rather see Hillary win.

    Liked the video, Fur. Even if he doesn't win, Bernie has played a valuable role in this campaign by talking about issues that voters need to be exposed to.

    BTW, the debate last night also devolved into a brief hint at penis size. Trump said Rubio had criticized him for having small hands and you know what that means. Trump then said he is just fine in that department :)

    Trump also called him "Little Marco" throughout, a constant reminder of Rubio's challenged height.
    BearinFW 03/04/2016 04:19 AM
  • "...he would have got on his knees if I asked him"! Holy Shit, and that's one of the milder of rude remarks that effortlessly falls from Trump's mouth. Amazing!

    The idea of Mitt going down on The Donald is nothing short of one big yuck.

    Love Trevor Noah's take on Hillary feeling the Bern! http://www.cc.com/video-clips/e64k0a/the-daily-sh … s-the-bern
    furball 03/04/2016 12:14 AM
  • One little correction on the previous post. Hillary did get a few votes more than Bernie in the Iowa caucuses, which was a great improvement on 2008 but basically a tie. Bernie easily won the caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado.
    BearinFW 03/03/2016 06:06 PM
  • Hi Bearlly. I understand the point made by the articles you referenced. But I think it's too early to draw that conclusion definitively, as it's mainly Southern and a few mainly white states that have voted so far. The big, diverse states like Michigan, Ohio and Florida are coming up soon. Let's see how the Dem race goes in those. If Bernie doesn't do much better among minority voters VERY soon, it's hard to see the narrative changing. But we'll find out in the next couple of weeks.

    One trend that does appear true again this time, as in 2008. Bernie has been winning the caucus states. I believe Nevada was the only caucus state Hillary won in 2008, and that's true so far this year as well.

    Candidates with a lot of young, enthusiastic supporters do well in caucus states, where the turnout is generally low. That fits Bernie, as it did Obama. The Obama campaign was also incredibly well organized and run. I doubt Bernie's campaign is up to that level, but very few are.
    BearinFW 03/03/2016 05:52 PM
  • I can't wait to see at least the first part of the debate tonight. You can bet the Fox News crew will use Romney's talking points to attack Trump, since Fox is basically just the broadcast arm of the Republican Party.

    Mr. Trump, Mitt Romney says you're a liar. Is that true?

    Mr. Trump, Mitt Romney says you'd drive America to bankruptcy. Is that true?

    Mr. Trump, you responded to Romney's speech by saying you could have had him on his knees if you'd wanted. What would you have wanted him to do while he was on his knees? :)

    Whatever you guys think of Trump, you have to admit he is great political theater!!!!
    BearinFW 03/03/2016 05:45 PM
  • It's fun to watch! The lead off sentence in an article in this morning's paper about the GOP's strategy to stop Trump is, "The Republican Party was in a state of pandemonium Wednesday....". Love it; I can't think of a group of people more deserving--finally the GOP is seeing the results of its hard work come to life. :)

    All the pundit talk was about how to stop Trump is crazy. If he wins all, or a close majority, of the delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination, it's going to be hard for the elite to attempt an alternative. Outside of the party apparatus, it's hard to see how they could nominate a viable alternative--run Romney as an independent? I don't think so. Listening to the other alternative of trying to force Kaisch out and have Cruz/Rubio run in a united front seems even less plausible. The Cruz/Rubio ticket reminds me of the adage: two wrongs don't make a right.

    Last year I remember Trump saying he would not run as a third party candidate if he felt he's treated fairly by the GOP. Obviously the GOP's quandary is a public affair and there can't be a backroom deal without, as barney stated, possibly starting a riot. I wish no ill will going forward, but the image of a bunch of angry white guys, all carrying with their new freshly minted open carry permits, making crazy in Cleveland this summer is comical in an obscene way. Talk about the chickens coming home to roost.

    Romney's speech today is the harbinger of what the elite are going to throw at Trump. You have to admit it rich when Romney, a total shill hiding as a businessman, calls Trump, "a phony, a fraud". Hypocrisy does not even begin to define the GOP right now and how utterly untethered from reality the party elites are from the constituents they have been trying to cultivate. I'm grabbing my bowl of popcorn and watching gleefully as this story unfolds.

    @bearlyy--you alacrity is duly noted!
    furball 03/03/2016 02:06 PM
  • I agree that at times it is wonderful to see what is happening to the GOP but it also brings back some pretty ugly memories of what happened to the Democratic Party in 1968. Lets not forget what can happen when you lose control and people get angry enough to lash out in violence? Sometimes dancing while your neighbor house burns is not a good idea? Do I think they deserve to go through this? Yes I do because they themselves brought all of this on starting with Nixon and Reagan. Maybe after all of this meltdown wiser people will emerge from this implosion and we can get back to a governing that is acceptable to most Americans. I do find it ironic that they have done their best to tear down what is good in the country and then want us to elect them to fix it? Sort of like hiring the fox to fix the door on the hen house?
    barney290 03/03/2016 08:11 AM
  • it is already hilarious...
    BDGF 03/02/2016 03:43 PM
  • So Trump will likely be the Republican nominee, and the GOP establishment can't stand him? hehehehe This implosion will be fun to watch ;-)
    Marc 03/02/2016 02:30 PM
  • if you blended all second and third place republicans running, you will still have the same thing as TRUMP
    BDGF 03/02/2016 10:48 AM