Iowa caucuses

Well, the Iowa caucuses came and went last night, and there wasn't much to change the trajectory of the race in either party.

I think there was only one "loser," and that wasn't by much.

Democrats: No winners or losers

Sanders: Won by proving he could stick with Clinton. But on the other hand, he also had a big turnout of his supporters and didn't win. What happens once this race heads to states that aren't small, liberal and mostly white?

Clinton: With 100 percent of caucus returns, it appears Hillary scored a victory by the tiniest of margins. But really, the result was a tie. Clinton "wins" by not suffering an embarrassing loss, like in 2008. Sanders should win next week in New Hampshire. The big test will be South Carolina, to see if he can compete in a more diverse state.

Republicans:

Cruz: He won the caucuses by a fairly comfortable margin, so he has to be considered a big winner. But in the last two elections, Iowa went to Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. A good result for Cruz, but he still has much to prove.

Rubio: His unexpectedly strong showing appears to make him the GOP establishment candidate. By hanging right with Cruz and Trump, he was a clear winner here, maybe even more so than Cruz. If he can wipe out the three remaining "establishment" hopes -- Bush, Kasich and Christie -- in New Hampshire, he'll be in a very strong position going forward.

Trump: The lone loser of the night among major candidates, but it wasn't a complete disaster. More like a missed opportunity. A win in Iowa could have set Trump up for an early clinching of the nomination. That didn't happen, but Trump has legitimate excuses: Evangelicals have an outsized influence in Iowa, and he didn't have a strong on-the-ground operation to get out caucus voters. Despite those deficiencies, he still managed to come in second.

Mike Huckabee and Martin O'Malley: End of the road for these guys, who both exited the race. Expect a major narrowing of the GOP field after New Hampshire.
By BearinFW | 02/02/2016 04:18 AM | 5 comments
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  • Bernie is trying to recreate the Obama path to defeat Hillary. OK, he has the white, young, liberal part of it. However, it has yet to be shown that he can connect with a critical part of that coalition. Obama received about 95% of the African-American vote. No way Bernie can get that, but to win the nomination he's probably got to get a pretty big chunk -- 40% plus, for sure. Can he do that? Doubtful, but we'll see. South Carolina will be the first big test of that.

    That is also why Hillary is trying so hard to portray herself as the candidate that will carry on the Obama legacy.
    BearinFW 02/04/2016 04:03 AM
  • Agreed. Ted Cruz is a DB. Love watching Trevor Noah these last few nights, as he emphasizes, with his devil smile, that one thing you can guarantee is that Ted Cruz is going to be asshole. Agreed.

    Guess Jimmy Carter thinks so too. He's quoted as saying that if had to vote for either Cruz or Trump--Trump would get his vote. Carter qualified it too that he really did not want to vote for either! Here's the link: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/carter-wou … spartanntp 49 more states to go? Please, wake me when it's over.
    furball 02/04/2016 02:31 AM
  • Cruz is scary. I hope he gets no where near the Presidency.
    bigfootsf 02/02/2016 01:08 PM
  • I have mixed feelings on Cruz as the possible GOP nominee. On the one hand, he's so extreme that that *should* guarantee a Democratic win. But on the other, it scares the hell out of me that a candidate that dangerous would get so close to the presidency. I don't know that I'd want to take a chance on the electorate doing something really stupid.

    BTW, in the original post, I didn't make it clear that Martin O'Malley is a Democrat. I thought his campaign would do better than it did, but he was wiped out by Sanders.
    BearinFW 02/02/2016 12:59 PM
  • Would love to see Cruz go all the way, that could be very good for the democrats. As soon as we get to the southern states and deep into the Midwest, I think that will be the end for Bernie, leaving Hillary the next President of the United States. My fingers are crossed.
    fenwaydav 02/02/2016 11:34 AM