The eagerly anticipated Michigan primary, considered the most important test of the 2016 presidential race to date, produced some tantalizing results. On the Republican side, Donald Trump was the winner, as expected, but his margin of victory shrank steadily after last week's disastrous debate and the full-scale attack launched by the GOP establishment. John Kasich was the big gainer, coming out of nowhere to finish in a virtual dead heat for second with Ted Cruz. Still, though, Kasich's strong showing wasn't totally unexpected; polls released beginning with Sunday's showed the Ohio governor making rapid progress. It's about time that at least some GOP voters figured out that Kasich is their best bet for winning in November.
But the big shocker came on the Democratic side, where Bernie Sanders scored a completely unexpected win in a squeaker over Hillary Clinton. This is really the first big upset of the 2016 political season. For the first time, Sanders has won in a big, diverse state, and he also for the first time captured a large enough slice of the black vote -- approximately 30 percent, according to CNN -- to allow him to score a major win. Clinton, who won all 22 delegates at stake with a blowout win in Mississippi, actually won a solid majority of the delegates up for grabs Tuesday, so Sanders' win doesn't do anything to immediately alter the race. But does it signal a sign of things to come? With Ohio and Florida voting next week, we'll find out in a hurry if Michigan means a tightening of the Democratic race or is merely an outlier.
While it's hard to say on the Democratic side (we definitely need backing results next week), I think the change on the Republican side is for real . Recent polls show Trump losing soundly if the GOP race gets down to a one-on-one faceoff. And the Michigan result shows a definite tightening. Cruz, rather cynically (why should that surprise anyone?), plans to spend heavily this week in Florida in an attempt to keep Marco Rubio from winning the state and thus force the Florida senator from the race. Cruz thinks he can win the GOP nomination, and the signs are there that traditional Republicans may be willing to hold their nose and go with him if they can stop Trump.
As a moderate Democrat/Libertarian, this strategy just scares the holy hell out of me, as I believe a Cruz victory would be a sign of the apocalypse. The beginning of the End Times for the U.S.??? Trump is not nearly so scary, though people can't see that through his bluster. I think independents would be terrified by Cruz, but the possibility of a Cruz win is just too dangerous. If it comes down to one or the other, I'd MUCH prefer Trump.
At this point, it's starting to look like the GOP race is going to come down to whether Trump can build up a big enough delegate advantage to hold on in case the race does get down to a one-on-one with Cruz.
Rubio appears to be dead man walking at this point. My hope is that Kasich can hold on by being a strong contender in the Northeast and Midwest. But first, he MUST win Ohio next week. If Rubio and Kasich are both gone after next week, the nomination may be Cruz's to lose.
HORRORS!!!!!.
Folks, if any of you are Republican voters in any upcoming states, I beseech you to consider voting for ANYBODY other than Cruz. I'm a Texan, and I'm warning you. If this man becomes president with a GOP Congress and a Supreme Court nomination in hand, there may be no limit to the damage he can do to this great nation. And I'm dead serious about that. Cruz is the most dangerous serious contender for the presidency in my memory. I'm hoping that Trump's foul mouth doesn't provide the cover that Cruz needs to sneak into the White House.
If Cruz were to win, he won't be bringing the so-called "kinder, gentler" Bush crew back into the White House. He'll be bringing a whole new bunch; they have ruled Texas mercilessly the past 15 years. And let me tell you, they are ruthless, vicious, rabidly conservative, and they will stop at nothing to get what they want. You don't want these monsters anywhere NEAR the White House, much less running the federal government!!!!!
From the lead on Vox sentences today. :) http://www.vox.com/
Hmmmm. A Cruz win and that Trudeau picture could create a gay male exodus to the Great White North. I hear Toronto is a great place for gays!!!! :)
Any other year, a candidate in the front running position like Trump would be considered a lock. It certainly is not any other year! Trump won three states last night and he's going to keep on winning, so it's pretty amazing reading all the scenarios this morning about him not winning the primary. Next week is going to be interesting.
@bearlyy, I love your enthusiasm, and obviously people are loving Sanders, but when I look at the math it does not work for him. Clinton can continue to win/lose by small margins going forward and secure the delegates needed, while Sanders would have to win super majorities going forward. Michigan is a tremendous win for his campaign, but he needs to win everything going forward. In the open primaries Sanders is winning, but the closed primaries Clinton has the edge, and next week in Florida, with all its delegates, I can't see him winning. But, hey, who guessed he'd win in Michigan? Never say never. By the time the primary voting gets out here to California in June, I think it's going to be a done deal.
On a lighter note bearlyy and Bear, I'm sure you both have seen the brickstarter campaign to buy bricks for Canada to help build a wall! To add a layer of levity, Andy Borowitz's piece in the 'New Yorker' that Canada's PM and its pandas are both just too cute resulting in Americans flooding the border into Canada. Watch out Canadians, here we come! http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/ca … gee-crisis
We've had some people on here say they wouldn't vote for Hillary in November under *any* circumstances. There may be some Hillary voters who say the same about Bernie. But people, I am telling you, if Cruz is the Republican nominee and you don't vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is, you are freaking CRAZY. Ted Cruz is a more vicious and unethical version of Joe McCarthy. No matter what you may think of Hillary or Bernie, either one would be a thousand times better than Cruz. You all don't realize how horrible these hard-core Texas conservatives are. They are not the Bushes. I'm warning you now, because the situation is really that dire. I'm in the Anybody But Cruz camp, for sure. I'd even rather have another Republican first. Even Donald Trump.