Hillary vs. The Donald. Debate I

Many in the media were calling Donald Trump the winner of Monday's debate against Hillary Clinton at Hofstra University. Analytically, I don't see how. Hillary was much better prepared, had greater command of the issues, was more presidential and on more than one occasion managed to get under Trump's skin. So why wasn't she the clear winner?

My guess is some are calling Trump the winner simply because he didn't get blown off the stage, didn't make an enormous mistake, and wasn't *totally* obnoxious. If you had such *low* expectations for Trump, then yeah, I guess you could consider that a win.

I, however, had expected Trump to be good. His handlers have been coaching him up for a while, and I think he knew that he couldn't be the same Donald Trump that he was in the GOP debates. I think he *WAS* the same Trump, only a tamer, toned-down version. He was still an obnoxious blowhard who constantly interrupted and tried to turn the debate into his own personal reality TV show.

My feeling on these first two debates is that Trump's goal is to pass the "Reagan Test." That is, he needs to come off as knowledgeable enough and temperamentally presidential enough for enough voters to make him their presidential choice. I'd have to give Trump an incomplete in this regard. Although I don't think he failed this assignment, I don't think he passed it either.

As for Hillary, I thought her performance was quite good. She wasn't as robotic as she was during her acceptance speech at the Democratic Convention, and she wasn't afraid to tangle with Trump as needed. Some of her supporters were disappointed that she didn't destroy Trump, but to do so would have risked running up her negatives even more and may not have succeeded.

In short, I don't think this debate will change many minds. Trump may have helped himself by persuading more reluctant Republicans to "come home" and vote for him, but I doubt it had much effect on anyone else. Hillary still needs to convince some of Bernie Sanders' young supporters that she's worth voting for, but I doubt she made much headway in that regard. I suspect that relatively few in this group can be reached at this late date.

Generally speaking, third debates don't do much of anything to move the needle, so the second debate, Oct. 9, may be the last big chance for the candidates to alter the race. Clinton didn't get her knockout Monday night, and Trump didn't pass the Reagan Test. One more shot may be all they get.

Unless something changes, we appear to be headed to the typical Red State/Blue State election with just the few usual tossup states deciding the outcome.

I think it's a deep flaw in our electoral system that the only voters who basically matter in presidential elections are those in about a dozen or so states, but there is realistically no hope of reform. If Congress can't even pass a simple budget bill, you can imagine how remote the odds are of the lawmakers in D.C. being able to agree on a constitutional amendment!!!


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  • When any remnant of national sovereignty that might still remain of the republic is sold to the highest bidder by Hillary for her own personal political and financial aggrandizement you will see what rights you will have left. She is a political New World Order whore of the socialist/fascist elite that is bent on world government in a 2oth century form of feudalism. If you think your rights to marry will be secure once the ship sinks and the bullshit rhetoric ends think again. The United Nations world government charter will be no adequate substitute for your Bill of Rights .Remember this as they carry your brainwashed ass to some collective farm someday, somewhere. She herself has stated that she says one thing to us and another to her totalitarian masters. Wake up man. Get your head out of your but and deprogram the mind control that has afflicted you and so many others. Her consolidation of government control over our lives is not to save the downtrodden. It is to enslave them as did Mao and Polpot, and Stalin and Hitler etc. Those who protested against socialist/fascist tyrants met early graves.
    Bud810 11/07/2016 12:57 PM
  • You know, Manjoguy, this is really a dilemma of the Republicans' own creation. If they had nominated John Kasich or Marco Rubio, they'd probably be sailing to victory. Hell, Trump may win as it is, but the Republicans certainly haven't made it easy on themselves by nominating a candidate that many Americans find so objectionable.

    Trump *might* be better than Bush or Cruz, but that's about it. Bush would have been a hard sell because the name has been so tarnished, and Cruz (I hope) would have been exposed for the total scumbag that he is.
    BearinFW 10/02/2016 12:38 AM
  • I have a friend I have known for 40 years. She is a wiz at real estate. She has been seriously investigating Panama and Costa Rico if Tiny Hands gets elected. As usual right before what I see as a major market moving event if it seems Trump will win I will sell a lot of stock and be ready to pounce with cash.

    Despite what you might think, the market wants Hillary. When it was determined that she won the debate the Peso climbed 2.1% in a day.
    txholdup 09/29/2016 04:44 PM
  • Sadly, Clinton won the debate. It would have been nice if we had a fair debate. Instead Trump walked straight into a trap as Lester Holt asked one-sided questions, and Hillary smirked throughout the 90 minutes.  And why not,…she knew the questions in advance. Holt often said Trump was "wrong" but he never challenged Hillary's "reality". Benghazi? Immigration/the wall? The emails? Bill's "bimbos" (which would negate that HRC is any sort of "feminist")? The "deplorables" comment? Sale of U.S. uranium to Russia? Trump had a lot he could have used. Throughout the evening Hillary smirked at him. She couldn't really hide her attitude of superiority and entitlement, and when she realized that things were going her way,  – that Trump was rattled,  – her smirk became obnoxious. Hillary Rotten Clinton is a vile, corrupt, treasonous, evil politician. She is not trustworthy. She's a plutocrat of the "ruling elite" class. She lacks character and integrity. This is the sort of person we want to hold up to our children as worthy to be president of our great country?!! Shame on anyone who'd support her.
    manjoguy 09/29/2016 01:23 PM
  • trump beats trump
    BDGF 09/29/2016 08:43 AM
  • Yes, Hillary has to be careful how far she goes to Bring him down.. I am on her side.. it's safer
    BDGF 09/29/2016 08:39 AM
  • It is getting scary to me. Two months I said "Relax, there's NO way this guy will ever get elected". Today he's getting closer to it and I don't get it.

    Btw a friend of mine put his condo on the market because he's afraid Trump will get in and the market will crash afterwards. His condo just went under agreement and he's going to rent for a year now.
    When he went to his banker the banker, a white republican told him that he's the 3rd person this month who has sold a property for fear that Donald Trump could get in and crash the economy.
    Marc 09/28/2016 03:31 PM
  • Hi guys. Media I was referring to was mostly print media. I read the sampling on CNN, and heard on radio that NY Times and some other papers said Trump came out ahead (winner might be too strong). But as I noted, I think their basic rationale was that since Trump didn't do as horrible as some expected, and didn't suffer a campaign-ending gaffe, that he "won." Sometimes you "win" based upon exceeding expectations, and some in the media especially had extremely low expectations for Trump. Personally, I don't think he had a good debate, but he wasn't as bad as he was in some of the GOP primary debates. I imagine, though, that most of those watching Monday were probably getting their first exposure to Trump the "debater." He didn't change his style from the earlier debates, just cleaned it up and toned it down.

    As for Hill, she's run a mostly "play it safe" campaign, and I think that may explain why she didn't go for a knockout blow. Her image is harsh enough without risking being judged as even more of a "witch." :)
    BearinFW 09/28/2016 03:17 PM
  • I agree with fenwaydav, every outlet I saw, including FOX gave the debate to Hillary.

    Trump did about as well as I expected. 90 minutes is way toooo long for him to keep Tiny Hands under control and he couldn't after about 30 minutes. His constant interruptions, constant snarky comments was The Donald from the primary election. He has smart handlers but he can't be handled.

    Hillary was very disappointing to me. She was so well prepped, rehearsed and waiting for the opportunity to use the takedowns she had planned she missed an opportunity for a knock out. When he said she had been fighting ISIS her whole life, how can you be so slow you leave that wide opening pitifully responded to? "Really Donald, in your mind I am superwoman, responsible for everything that happened under Clinton, Bush and Obama." "In your mind I was President and held every cabinet position." "I'm a superwoman Donald but as usual you have grossly exaggerated my influence."

    Hillary needs a nasty queen on her staff who can teach her how to do snap backs.
    txholdup 09/28/2016 01:59 PM
  • It was interesting yesterday seeing how Trump's mood changed over the course of the day. Early in the day, when at least some in the media were saying he won, and he was probably being told as much by his supporters, he was happy and declaring himself the winner. Later in the day, as the polls started coming in showing that the public viewed him as a clear loser, he started saying the debate was rigged against him, and Guiliani said he should skip the remaining debates. I think that would be a mistake. He needs to do the remaining debates but be better. But if he doesn't think he can be, then maybe skipping would be a good idea. It will be interesting to see if the debate moved voters any when polls start coming in later this week. I still expect an at least reasonably close race. I think the country is too polarized and both sides too locked in for there to be a rout, a la Reagan-Mondale or Johnson-Goldwater.
    BearinFW 09/28/2016 05:07 AM
  • Not sure what media you're watching but everything I've heard was that Clinton was the clear winner. She was much better prepared and she was right on point. In Trumps usual style he blamed the mic for picking up him sniffling. If you listen clearly to whenever he speaks he always has a sort of snorting sound in between sentences, which is quite normal for a pig. He didn't do himself a service to bring Rosie O'Donnell back into the conversation. The best line came when Clinton said "yes I did prepare for the debate, I also prepared for being the next president". Lester Holt did a pretty good job in moving things along and in typical Trump form was blamed for being bias. Whenever things don't go in Trumps favor, of course it's because of them being bias. Trump is being advised not to attend the two remaining debates, and frankly I hope he takes that advice.
    fenwaydav 09/28/2016 04:53 AM