FACE OF U S CHANGING

WASHINGTON (AP) -- It's not just the economy, stupid. It's the demographics - the changing face of America.

The 2012 elections drove home trends that have been embedded in the fine print of birth and death rates, immigration statistics and census charts for years.

America is rapidly getting more diverse, and, more gradually, so is its electorate.

Nonwhites made up 28 percent of the electorate this year, compared with 20 percent in 2000. Much of that growth is coming from Hispanics.

The trend has worked to the advantage of President Barack Obama two elections in a row now and is not lost on Republicans poring over the details of Tuesday's results.

Obama captured a commanding 80 percent of the growing ranks of nonwhite voters in 2012, just as he did in 2008. Republican Mitt Romney won 59 percent of non-Hispanic whites.

Romney couldn't win even though he dominated among white men and outperformed 2008 nominee John McCain with that group. It's an ever-shrinking slice of the electorate and of America writ large.

White men made up 34 percent of the electorate this year, down from 46 percent in 1972.

"The new electorate is a lagging indicator of the next America," says Paul Taylor of the Pew Research Center. "We are midpassage in a century-long journey from the middle of the last century, when we were nearly a 90 percent white nation, to the middle of this coming century, when we will be a majority minority nation."

Another trend that will be shaping the future electorate is the stronger influence of single women. They vote differently from men and from women who are married. Fifty-four percent of single women call themselves Democrats; 36 percent of married women do.

With women marrying later and divorcing more, single women made up 23 percent of voters in the 2012 election, compared with 19 percent in 2000.

The changing electorate has huge implications for public policy and politics.

Suddenly, immigration overhaul seems a lot more important, for one thing.

Ask white voters about the proper role of government, for another, and 60 percent think it should do less. Ask Hispanics the same question, and 58 percent think the government should do more, as do 73 percent of blacks, exit polls show.

You can hear it in the voice of Alicia Perez, a 31-year-old immigration attorney who voted last week at a preschool in Ysleta, Texas.

"I trust the government to take care of us," she said. "I don't trust the Republican Party to take care of people."

Sure, the election's biggest issue, the economy, affects everyone. But the voters deciding who should tackle it were quite different from the makeup of the 1992 "It's the economy, stupid" race that elected Democrat Bill Clinton as president.

Look no further than the battleground states of Campaign 2012 for political ramifications flowing from the country's changing demographics.

New Western states have emerged as the Hispanic population there grows. In Nevada, for example, white voters made up 80 percent of the electorate in 2000; now they're at 64 percent. The share of Hispanics in the state electorate has grown to 19 percent; Obama won 70 percent of their votes.

Obama won most of the battlegrounds with a message that was more in sync than Romney's with minorities, women and younger voters, and by carefully targeting his grassroots mobilizing efforts to reach those groups.

In North Carolina, where Romney narrowly defeated Obama, 42 percent of black voters said they had been contacted on behalf of Obama, compared with just 26 percent of whites, exit polls showed. Obama got just 31 percent of the state's white vote, but managed to keep it competitive by claiming 96 percent of black voters and 68 percent of Hispanics.

Young voters in the state, two-thirds of whom backed Obama, also were more often the target of Obama's campaign than Romney's: 35 percent said they were contacted by Obama, 11 percent by Romney. Among senior citizens, two-thirds of whom voted Republican, 33 percent were contacted by Obama, 34 percent by Romney.

Howard University sociologist Roderick Harrison, former chief of racial statistics at the Census Bureau, said Obama's campaign strategists proved themselves to be "excellent demographers."

"They have put together a coalition of populations that will eventually become the majority or are marching toward majority status in the population, and populations without whom it will be very difficult to win national elections and some statewide elections, particularly in states with large black and Hispanic populations," Harrison said.

One way to see the trend is to look at the diversity of young voters. Among voters under 30 years old this year, only 58 percent are white. Among senior voters, 87 percent are white.

Brookings Institution demographer William H. Frey says policymakers and politicians need to prepare for a growing "cultural generation gap."

"Both parties are getting the message that this is a new age and a new America," says Frey. "Finally, the politics is catching up with the demography."

Just as Republicans need to do a better job of attracting Hispanics, says Frey, Democrats need to do more to reach out to whites.

The face of Congress is changing more slowly than the electorate or the population, but changing it is.

House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California was happy to highlight the news that for the first time in history, more than half the members of her caucus next year will be women, black, Hispanic or Asian. She said it "reflects the great diversity and strength of our nation."

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, whose caucus is far more white and male, said Republicans need to learn to "speak to all Americans - you know, not just to people who look like us and act like us."

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, one of the GOP's most prominent black women, said the party needs to understand that "the changing demographics in the country really necessitate an even bigger tent for the Republican Party."

"Clearly we are losing important segments of that electorate and what we have to do is to appeal to those people not as identity groups but understanding that if you can get the identity issue out of the way, then you can appeal on the broader issues that all Americans share a concern for," she said.

All sides know the demographic trends are sure to become more pronounced in the future.

In the past year, minority babies outnumbered white newborns for the first time in U.S. history. By midcentury, Hispanics, blacks, Asians and multiracial people combined will become the majority of the U.S.

Since 2000, the Hispanic and Asian populations have grown by more than 40 percent, fueled by increased immigration of younger people as well as more births.

Currently, Hispanics are the largest minority group and make up 17 percent of the U.S. population, compared with 12 percent for blacks and 5 percent for Asians. Together minorities now make up more than 36 percent of the population.

Hispanics will make up roughly 30 percent of the U.S. by midcentury, while the African-American share is expected to remain unchanged at 12 percent. Asian-Americans will grow to roughly 8 percent of the U.S.

"The minorities will vote," said demographer Frey. "The question is will their vote be split more across the two parties than it was this time?"

For both Republicans and Democrats, he said, the 2012 election is a wake-up call that will echo through the decades.

---


Comments are disabled for this blog post.
  • Speaking of free shit, are you a paying member to this site dude? Let's not be an unpaid member of a site talking about people wanting free shit!
    kelleysiland 11/12/2012 01:07 AM
  • Maybe Dallas County is a microcosm of what is in store for Texas as a whole and much of the nation, especially more urban America.

    Back in JFK's day, Dallas County was considered one of the most hard-core, radical Republican places in the country. Many people at the time speculated that that was a factor in the assassination.

    Flash forward 50 years. Now Dallas County is a minority-majority county with a diverse population that includes a strong gay community and a booming Hispanic community. Dallas is now the second-most Democratic urban area in the state (after Austin), and the changeover happened quickly, about 8 years ago, catching the county's Republican officeholders by surprise when there was a complete turnover in county government.

    It's no secret that the Hispanic population is growing by leaps and bounds here, and it won't be long before the Hispanic population constitutes a plurality of the state's population. Now, Hispanic voting lags well behind population growth, but it's only a matter of time ... And it's why most of the top Republicans in the state have changed their tune and softened their stances on immigration issues. They know that to survive long-term, the party must increase its share of the Hispanic vote.

    Unless that happens, the Democratic Party is at some point going to become first competitive, then the top party in the state again. As shown by what happened in Dallas, when it happens, it's going to be fast. That's because of the straight-ticket voting mechanism I mentioned earlier. The GOP takeover of Texas happened in a mere 4 years, and no Dem has been elected statewide here since 1994.

    I personally don't think it's going to happen real soon. There is still a long way to go. It may be 20 years. But when it does happen, it will happen with a bang.

    We've seen this happen in other states with large Hispanic populations too -- New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, even, to a degree, California. Strangely not Arizona yet, but probably a matter of time there, too.
    BearinFW 11/12/2012 12:54 AM
  • Erly I just hope and pray that you are not the only one that thinks like you do in the GOP! None of your BS predictions came true nor are any of your quotes,comments or fact checking turned out to be correct. Keep your base intact,change nothing and we will continue to represent the rest of the US.
    barney290 11/11/2012 05:47 PM
  • lol I have a friend in NYC who told me "If Sex and the City were real, it would be an Indian chick, a cool hip black chick, and 2 Korean chicks" which makes sense to me


    This video above is what america looks like now 

    And they do NOT want some religious white man telling them if they get raped its ok because their body will reject the rapists sperm.
    And they have to walk around with a filthy rapists baby inside of them. Are you kidding me? What is this 1600's?
    Fuck that. Romney and the GOP ancient social beliefs need to go.
    And little by little gays are treated with more respect. Im so happy about the results of the election.
    Marc 11/11/2012 04:59 PM
  • I can't give you specific studies or numbers on Latino voters, but I can give you a couple of examples from California:

    After Republicans in CA pushed a harsh anti-immigrant ballot measure, the percentage of Hispanics voting for the GOP plunged, and it has stayed down. I'd have to say anti-immigration arguments by the GOP have had at least some impact, because the percentage of Hispanics voting Republican has declined markedly in recent years here in TX, too.

    Also, it's a myth that all Hispanics are conservative on social issues. In CA, Hispanic voters roughly split evenly in the Prop. 8 vote.

    BTW, here in TX you won't find any Democratic Hispanic officeholders in statewide offices. That's because you won't find any Democratic officeholders in statewide offices. Texas is a one-party state. Always has been and likely always will be because of a device on our ballots that encourages straight-ticket voting.
    BearinFW 11/11/2012 03:29 PM
  • I hear it all the time that people are tired of the politics in Washington DC but do any of these people pick up the phone or write to their elected officals and let them know what they think? I know that the statistics show that very few do and guess what? The ones that do get heard and that is who the elected officals listen to. Stop whining about politicians and what they don't do and start doing what the Presiedent asked and that is get involved and be active in your community. Everyone quotes the Constitution about all these rights they have and no one reads the part about "We The People". That means there is a responsibility of being "We the People" and it is not sitting one ones cute ass and sniveling about what is wrong.
    Let's not under estimate the work and machine that Obama built back in 2007 to get elected. It is nothing like any candidate has had ever and it shows when you look at what he has accomplished and who he has beaten. That is not going to go away and the next Democrat to run is going to have access to the same information and tactics that he had. Yes the demographics of the country have changed and the GOP is very much out of step with that but this election was a beat down and there is no other way to look at it. The big money against the liberals was enormous and resulted in? Nothing! Both houses have gotten a little bluer and this is with an economy that is tanked and unemployment at 8%. The conservatives can complain all the want about Romney this and rape that but it comes down to how to play in the big leagues boys and you I am afraid sent someone to a gun fight with a knife!
    barney290 11/11/2012 09:43 AM
  • Ya know rae, I live in a 99.9% all white neighborhood in Chicago...one of the very few, if not the ONLY neighborhood that has no African Americans and has VERY few (a wanna say less then 1%) latino and, what I know of, the only MO. It is so dishearting to me to hear these people talk about blacks, latinos, asians, middle eastern, and gay people. And it is not a casual talk, it is a genuine hatred. In the last couple of years, the old are moving on and the young are moving in and the thought process is changing and those who are not as liberal about race or sexual preferance are being hit with this "I'd love to see this area become more diverse" and it's shaking the core of these old schoolers. And it's so hard to wrap their heads around the world as it is changing. I was just saying to a friend tonight how, in my day, growing up in the '70's, if you saw an African American and a white person together, holding hands in public...OMG!!!! Today, what a cute couple. If you had a single guy living on your block at the age of 55 and he has never been married....OMG!!! Yes the world is changing....FOR THE BETTER!!! Hell, when my parents were growing up a Jew married a Jew, an Italian married and Italian, etc.....As the one interview I saw after the election was called, the Republicans have a Latino problem. In my eyes, they also have a black problem, an asian problem, a female problem (less Michelle Bauchman who is really, I think, a republican drag queen), and a homosexual problem. They are still all sitting in another century where NONE of these minorities had a voice. Let's open some eyes, shall we? There are black CEO's of major corperations today. Hispanics own homes and have legitimate jobs other than farming, landscapeing, and bus boys, women are now primary bread winners in homes, asians are the new largest growing minority in this country, and homosexuals are owning homes, adopting children, and living amougst the "normal" people. The demographics have changed and it's only going to change more. The Republicans will NEVER be able to bridge that gap unless they change their views. They are only alianating more and more. My aunt in Arizona is a die hard Republican, yet she feels that her gay nephew should have the right to marry when he has found the right man. My aunt, the Republican bitch who pisses me off calling our President a N***** and I hang up on her wants me to find a man and get married. Europe laughs at this country for it's constant FIGHT over differences in culture and race, yet we were the country who accepted ALL in at one time. Yeah, come over to our country so that we can make you a political statistic. We are "one nation, under God"...unless you are black, hispanic, female, asian, islomic or gay, then you are not our problem if you are not Republican and become white, male, christian and straight. Wanna see a country implode....wait another 20 years. I just hope I'm dead by then. Welcome to the new Middle East.
    kelleysiland 11/11/2012 12:39 AM
  • Well-written and presumably well-researched.

    Thanks for sharing this insightful information.
    everysooften 11/10/2012 08:53 PM
  • Yep, short-sighted decisions in the past are coming home to roost for the GOP. Becoming the "White People's Party" won them elections for quite a few years, but it's increasingly becoming an albatross. I think even the most reluctant of Republicans can see that after this election. Carville also has an interesting piece up on this topic on CNN.
    BearinFW 11/10/2012 08:53 PM